Tracking the Tropics: First tropical system of 2021 may form soon


While the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season does not begin until June 1, the National Hurricane Center may be tracking tropical development northeast of Bermuda within the next few days.

If this tropical system were to strengthen and produce maximum sustained winds of 39+ mph, it would receive the name “Ana.”

While it is outside of the normal “start” of hurricane season, it is not unusual for tropical storms to form in the month of May. In fact, at least one tropical depression and/or tropical storm has formed in the month of May for the past 6 years, and some years have even featured two. In the entirety of the Atlantic hurricane basin records, as many as 52 tropical depressions and tropical storms have formed in the month of May. Some storms have formed even earlier in the month of April.

The peak of hurricane season traditionally occurs in mid-September.

Below is additional information from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system has developed within a broad area of cloudiness and thunderstorms about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today while it moves generally northward. The low is forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday.
For more information on this developing low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.

Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

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