8/25/21: Keeping an eye on the Tropics


Quick Tropical Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:

After dealing with the rains from the remnants of Fred late last week and Henri over the weekend and earlier this week we now turn our attention to three more tropical waves now developing in the Atlantic Basin. We are going into the heart of Atlantic Hurricane Season, as the season typically peaks by mid-September, and conditions are becoming more favorable for more storms to develop in the coming weeks.

As mentioned, the National Hurricane Center is currently watching 3 areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic, while they all have the chance for development over the next two-five days there is one in particular that we will be watching closely. Lets look at the bigger picture first.

The wave off the coast of Africa has a 20-30% chance of development, however, it does not mean we should not watch that area, as initially Henri was expected to dissipate and not have any impacts in the US. But according to the National Hurricane Center, as we approach the weekend it will be encountering less favorable upper level winds which would more than likely shred this system apart.

The area just east of Bermuda is an area to watch. The likelihood of developing into a tropical system is slightly higher than the eastern wave, however, the way things look right now, this would likely hook to the north and then curve back to the east, so likely no impacts expected from that system. The National Hurricane Center is mentioning that currently, conditions are not very favorable for much development, however as we go through the weekend this system will be moving into an environment that will be conducive for further development so a tropical depression later this weekend may be possible east of Bermuda.

The area that we need to keep a close eye on is the disturbed weather that is now in the western Caribbean. This will likely approach the Yucatan later this week and into the weekend. After that it is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico where conditions become very favorable for further development into a tropical system. Guidance for this system does have it strengthening into at least a tropical storm, however, some models want to strengthen it further before making landfall in Mexico or along the Gulf Coast states sometime next week.

The reason we are worried about this system is because if it does impact the Gulf States, the chances are high that by the first weekend of September we could be talking about impacts from the remnants here in the northeast. Again, this is 10-14 days away and many things can change, such is the nature of tropical systems, but certainly something we will be watching here in the weather center.

We have already seen 8 named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin this season, 5 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes with Grace being the only Major Hurricane, Category 3 or higher so far this season.

The next systems name will be “Ida”, below is a list of the systems we have already seen and the names of any future systems.

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