3/2/2023: Looking ahead to big storm Friday-Saturday

The latest Storm Tracker Forecast from chief meteorologist Steve Caporizzo and meteorologist Matt Mackie:

UPDATED DISCUSSION 10pm

10pm

WEATHER Brief on this Extremely difficult storm.

An explanation as to what is going on-We call it the warm nose of air at 6-9,000 feet. How far north does it go to produce sleet will ultimately determine snowfall accumulations.

New data coming in with some Great models is still all over the place !

It may not be til tomorrow morning before they come together in better agreement-but so far-not tonight.

After a mostly gloomy day, there will be some clearing overnight and into Friday morning. Temperatures will drop down to the mid 20’s, and the breeze will gradually ease up.

A storm system now gathering over the south central US will be able to tap into a great deal of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Then it tracks towards the northeast, with big implications for our weather locally. We turn cloudy by Friday afternoon. Snow is likely to begin between 7 and 10 pm depending on location, perhaps a bit earlier in the Catskills.

Initially, expect a quick thump of heavy snow across the board. Decent accumulations will materialize quickly, and travel conditions go downhill fast in many locations. After midnight, a layer of warm air aloft could sneak in from the the south, leading to periods of sleet for some. That would rob us of several hours of snow, cutting down on totals. This changeover is most likely in our southern counties, but uncertainty remains as to how much of our area gets in on that wintry mix.

We’ll change back to all snow by daybreak Saturday and, though things will lighten up late morning/early afternoon, at least some snow showers could linger well into the day.

Check out computer model guidance for this storm. They’re all over the place! Some have Albany at more than a foot, some give the capital city only a couple inches. Of course we look at a ton of data when putting together our forecasts, and these models are just a small part of the overall picture. But it is unusual for them to be this far apart 24 hours out.

That makes it a difficult storm to forecast. Here’s our take on the snow map. Expecting 4-8″ in much of the Capital District, with a foot or more in the Adirondacks and Greens. Lower totals south, where the change to sleet is more likely and some shadowing off the mountains will also keep the snow from piling up as quickly.

While we expect to make adjustments to the totals above as new data comes in, we are confident that travel will be dicey at times, whether you’re on the high or low end. The roads will likely be worst from 10 pm Friday through Saturday morning. If you can, stay in. If you must venture out, go slow and be safe!