Future NYS Medicaid costs associated with the coronavirus pandemic unclear

ALBANY, N.Y. (NEWS10)-The state has yet to release the number of New Yorkers who enrolled in Medicaid during the coronavirus pandemic and likely won’t until closer to the end of the year due to a three-month lag in Medicaid enrollment data as per the NYS Department of Health.

But with little more than two million unemployment claims for the week of May 9, the number of people who applied for Medicaid could be significant.

It may be a trend that will likely continue into the next couple of years based on historical data from recessions earlier in the decade. Medicaid enrollment grew 17.4% over two years after the 2001 recession and 16.7% over three years after the 2007-09 recession, according to Pew Research.

Growth in Medicaid enrollment combined with any coverage of COVID-19 related expenses, including testing, means the state is potentially millions of dollars over budget. This may negate any hope the Medicaid Redesign Team II’s will reach its goal of saving the state $2.85 million in Medicaid expenses.

But it makes their work more critical as the state struggles with millions of dollars of revenue loss with no clear cut way how the state will absorb the costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The NYS Office of the Budget and the NYS Comptroller’s Office have both released a warning about the potentially drastic economic consequences of the state’s loss of revenue combined with additional costs tied to COVID-19 and the state’s shutdown but did not release estimates for future Medicaid expenses.