WASHINGTON (AP) — Older people remain most at risk of dying as the coronavirus continues its rampage around the globe, but they’re far from the only ones vulnerable. One of many mysteries: men seem to fare worse than women.
As cases skyrocket, it’s becoming clearer that how healthy you were before the pandemic will play a key role, regardless of how old you are.
The majority of people who get COVID-19 have mild or moderate symptoms. But “majority” doesn’t mean “all,” and that raises an important question: Who should worry that they’ll be among the seriously ill? It will take months for scientists to collect enough data to say for sure who is most at risk and why, but worldwide preliminary numbers offer hints.
Not just the old get sick
Senior citizens undoubtedly are the hardest hit by COVID-19. In China, 80% of deaths were among people in their 60s or older, a general trend that plays out elsewhere.
The graying of the population means some countries face particular risk. Italy has the world’s second-oldest population after Japan. While death rates fluctuate wildly early in an outbreak, Italy has reported more than 80% of deaths so far were among those 70 or older.
But, “the idea that this is purely a disease that causes death in older people” is something “we need to be very, very careful with,” warns Dr. Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization’s emergencies chief. He said Friday that as much as 10% to 15% of people under 50 have moderate to severe infections.
If they survive, middle-aged people may spend weeks in the hospital. In France, over half of the first 300 people admitted to intensive care units were under 60.
“Young people are not invincible,” adds the World Health Organization’s Maria Van Kerkhove, who says more information is needed about the disease in all age groups.
Italy reported that a quarter of its cases so far were among people ages 19 to 50. In Spain, a third are under age 44. In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s first snapshot of cases found 29% were aged 20 to 44.
Then there’s the puzzle of children, who have only made up a small fraction of the world’s case counts to date. While most appear only mildly ill, research in the journal “Pediatrics” traced 2,100 infected children in China, and noted one death, a 14-year-old, with nearly 6% seriously ill.
Another question is what role kids have in spreading the virus. “There is an urgent need for further investigation of the role children have in the chain of transmission,” researchers at Canada’s Dalhousie University write in the Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal.
The riskiest health conditions
Put aside age, underlying health plays a big role. In China, 40% of people who required critical care had other chronic health problems. There, deaths were highest among people diagnosed with heart disease, diabetes, or chronic lung diseases before COVID-19.
Preexisting health problems also can increase the risk of infection, such as in people with weak immune systems, including from cancer treatment.
Other countries now are seeing how pre-pandemic health plays a role, and more such threats will likely be discovered. Italy reported that, of the first nine people younger than 40 who died of COVID-19, seven were confirmed to have “grave pathologies” like heart disease.
The more health problems, the worse they fare. Italy also reports about half of those who died with COVID-19 had three or more underlying conditions, while just 2% of deaths were in people with no preexisting ailments.
Heart disease is a very broad term, but so far it looks like those most at risk have significant cardiovascular diseases such as congestive heart failure or severely stiffened and clogged arteries, says Dr. Trish Perl, infectious disease chief at UT Southwestern Medical Center.
Any infection tends to make diabetes harder to control, but it’s not clear why diabetics appear to be at particular risk with COVID-19.
Risks in the less healthy may have something to do with how they hold up if their immune systems overreact to the virus. Patients who die often seemed to have been improving after a week or so only to suddenly deteriorate, experiencing organ-damaging inflammation.
As for preexisting lung problems, “this is really happening in people who have less lung capacity,” Perl says, because of diseases such as COPD—chronic obstructive pulmonary disease—or cystic fibrosis.
Asthma also is on the worry list. No one really knows about the risk from very mild asthma, although even routine respiratory infections often leave patients using their inhalers more often, and they need monitoring with COVID-19, Perl says.
What about a prior bout of pneumonia? Unless it was severe enough to put you on a ventilator, that alone shouldn’t have caused any significant lingering damage, she says.
The gender mystery
Perhaps gender imbalance shouldn’t be a surprise. During previous outbreaks of SARS and MERS—cousins to COVID-19—scientists noticed men seemed more susceptible than women.
This time around, slightly more than half the COVID-19 deaths in China were among men. Other parts of Asia saw similar numbers. Then Europe, too, spotted what Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus coordinator, labeled a concerning trend.
In Italy, where men so far make up 58% of infections, male deaths are outpacing female deaths, and the increased risk starts at age 50, according to a report from Italy’s COVID-19 surveillance group.
The CDC hasn’t yet released details in the U.S., but one report about the first 200 or so British patients in critical care found about two-thirds were male.
Globally, men are more likely to have smoked more heavily and for longer periods than women. Scientific American and the European CDC urge research into smoking’s connection to COVID-19.
Hormones may play a role, too. In 2017, University of Iowa researchers infected mice with SARS and, just like had happened in people, males were more likely to die. Estrogen seemed protective—when their ovaries were removed, deaths among female mice jumped, the team reported in the Journal of Immunology.
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