Latest Forecast Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:
Clouds won out this afternoon which kept temperatures slightly cooler than expected with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s, however the rain held off and it looks to stay dry tonight, however that will be changing through the day on Monday.
An area of rain that is extending from Syracuse to southern Pennsylvania will be approaching overnight tonight, this will likely arrive in the Catskills by Monday morning and then spread northeastward during the mid morning hours.
Upper level feature, along with a surface low pressure system will hang out over the northeast for the next several days. This will bring the chance for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
High pressure will be building back in for Wednesday and this looks to stick around through much of the second half of the week and will bring warming temperatures too!
I want to stress that Monday nor Tuesday will be a washout, in fact I think the first half of Monday looks to be the wettest with perhaps some breaks of sunshine after noon. When you wake up tomorrow morning, most will begin on a dry note, with the exception of those of you south and west of Albany.
This rain will overspread the region by mid-morning into the early afternoon hours. It could come down heavy at times and be accompanied by a rumble or two of thunder.
Once the first wave of rain moves through I think we get a little break for the afternoon and early evening. This should allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s, which could lead to a popup shower or storm into Monday evening. Any storm would be capable of gusty winds, heavy rain and perhaps some small hail. Any storm that does develop would likely be very isolated, not everyone will see a storm in the afternoon.
We wash, rinse, and repeat for Tuesday. However, guidance is a little more spotty when it comes to the shower chances for Tuesday, with perhaps a slightly better chance at a storm or two Tuesday afternoon and early evening. With some breaks of sunshine temperatures will likely be a degree or two warmer than on Monday.
From tonight through Tuesday evening we are looking at a general half an inch to an inch of rain. Lesser amounts look likely through the Hudson Valley from Albany north, as well as east into Western New England. Higher amounts west into the Catskills, that could exceed an inch or two. Of course if you see a thunderstorm you could expect to see more rain.
We begin to dry out on Wednesday as high pressure moves in with a return to highs in the mid 80s. Warming up into the upper 80s for Thursday, Friday a weak cold front will be sneaking through, some guidance tries to squeeze out a shower or storm, right now I think that threat is low. Behind that we look at a beautiful weekend with highs back into the mid to upper 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. Have a great night and don’t forget the umbrella Monday! -Rob