8/21/21: Watching Henri for Sunday into Monday

Forecast

Latest Forecast Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:

We continue to track Hurricane Henri, which is set to make landfall near Long Island Sunday afternoon and begin to impact the Capital Region with rain and wind through Sunday evening and overnight.

There is an upper level trough West on Henri, and an upper level ridge of high pressure north and east, these two features are working together to force Henri into Southern New England, however, it will also aid in slowing Henri way down once it gets here, that is why the flooding risk is so high.

Henri is expected to make Landfall as a strong Tropical Storm Sunday late morning/ early afternoon. Sunday for us here in the Capital Region starts out quiet.

However, that will be changing as the day progresses. Rain will begin to move northward by midday, mainly in the form of showers and perhaps a few heavier downpours. But by the evening and overnight hours we will be dealing with periods of heavy rainfall that will likely lead to flooding concerns.

Henri will then slow down and continue to produce the heavy rainfall through the day on Monday through the Capital Region.

Because we are expecting widespread 2-4″ of rain with some seeing significantly higher amounts, rainfall graphics below, the National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch through Monday morning.

In terms of the amounts, they will vary greatly depending on where you are… Lesser amounts expected further north with significantly higher amounts expected in the higher elevations, especially the east side of the Berkshires and Catskills where there could be some terrain enhancement.

Because of this the risk of flooding will be high and we urge you to listen closely to local officials and of course stay up to date with the latest forecast through Sunday night. Of course this is all highly dependent on the exact track of the storm. If it tracks more east, then lesser rainfall amounts will be likely. But rain will not be the only factor, we also have to deal with the winds, especially those east of Albany in the Berkshires where gusts could approach 45-50mph+ Sunday evening and overnight. Even in the Hudson Valley, gusts look likely to reach 35-40 mph. These winds will slowly subside during the course of Monday.

Once we get past Henri, we try to dry things out for Tuesday and Wednesday with perhaps a few storms for Thursday. Cooler weather follows to end the week and to start next weekend. Stay safe Sunday night, and remember, the heavy stuff doesn’t look to arrive until the evening, now is the time to prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. -Rob

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