Latest Forecast Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:
The rain arrived in the Capital Region this afternoon and unfortunately, it appears that it will continue overnight with periods of heavy rain likely, especially I-90 north. Flash Flood Watches have been posted and begin at 8 p.m tonight through Monday.
Over the last 7 days there have been upwards of 7″ of rain for some locations, we are expecting a widespread area of 1-3″ with localized higher amounts tonight through Monday, which is why there is concern for localized flash flooding, the soil is water logged and the smaller creeks and streams will begin to rise.
A large and slow moving area of low pressure is over the Ohio Valley tonight, this is what is bringing the rainfall to the Capital Region, out ahead of a warm front. Tremendous amount of energy is just west of this feature and that will slowly be moving through the Great Lakes over the coming day which will continue this very unsettled weather.
Now, because the warm front will be close tomorrow afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring for the possibility of strong to severe storms. Especially for the Capital Region South and West.
Overnight tonight will feature steady rainfall, with periods of heavy rain likely, again, especially for folks north of I-90.
Monday morning looks to start out soggy, but the rain should gradually taper off Albany northbound and we look to remain mostly cloudy through the afternoon.
Then the focus shifts south during the afternoon and evening, along the warm front where storms look likely to pop up. The biggest threats would be strong damaging winds, however, with close proximity to the warm front we can’t rule out some spin in the atmosphere which could promote a brief tornado south and west into the Catskills.
The warm front moved north Tuesday morning, bringing in warmer temperatures and a more humid feel to the air. However, this will also provide the risk for more storms firing in the afternoon, especially to the west. Wednesday more scattered storms likely, however, we turn on the heat for Thursday and Friday, both days now looking mostly dry. The weekend on the other hand, is looking to turn wet again as a cold front begins to move through. Have a great week and don’t forget that umbrella! -Rob