Latest Forecast Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:
ALBANY, N.Y. (NEWS10) – Was another warm and muggy afternoon today with pop-up thunderstorms. That activity will come to an end this evening and we will remain muggy with cloudy skies and patchy fog developing overnight. Warm weather continues for Monday ahead of a cold front. This cold front will spark thunderstorms, some of which will have the potential to turn strong to severe through the evening.
A strong cold front through the Great Lakes this evening will be pushing through the northeast by Monday afternoon and evening. This will be the “spark” for storms to develop into Monday evening, they will be developing in an environment capable of producing strong storms with damaging winds and potentially large hail, we also cannot rule out an isolated tornado. Much cooler air follows for the middle of the week with gusty winds likely for Tuesday.
Storm Prediction Center has all of Eastern New York into the Adirondacks under an enhanced (3/5) risk on the threat category scale. This means that numerous severe storms are possible in these areas, a few of which could turn locally intense. The slight risk extends into Western New England, this does not mean you will not see a strong to a severe storm. Everyone needs to keep an eye on the sky Monday afternoon.
The risks, as mentioned above, are highest with wind damage potential, as any storm that develops could produce damaging winds. Hail will also be a relatively high threat as well as heavy rains which could lead to localized flooding concerns. The other concern will be the threat of a tornado or two. The environment will be able to create some spin while these storms move through which is why we have to mention the threat. The best timing for these storms will be from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Futurecast shows a few storms beginning to fire up ahead of the mainline of convection as early as 2 p.m., tomorrow afternoon. These could have the potential to become severe.
By the early evening, the main line of storms will begin working through the region with the greatest forcing. These are the storms that could produce wind damage and even an isolated tornado. Please be ‘weather’ aware of any plans you may have Monday afternoon and evening.
Behind these storms, winds will gust Monday night ushering in cooler and drier air for the middle of the week with highs back into the 60s to near 70 degrees. We slowly warm back up towards the end of the week likely into the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. The heat is on as we kick off next weekend with temperatures in the upper 80s with plenty of humidity. This could spark a few pop-up thunderstorms, and also bring in slightly cooler air by next Sunday with highs back into the mid-70s. Have a great night and please stay safe on Monday. -Rob