5/15/20: Strong to Severe Storms this Afternoon

Forecast

Latest Forecast Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:

Happy Friday! The warm air from yesterday and today will come at a price, we will be tracking the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures will feel more like the beginning of summer with temperatures near 80 with a very humid feel to the air.

This morning a warm front is pushing through the Capital Region, this will slow down and essentially stall out just north of Albany, the focus of the severe weather this afternoon will be focused around where that front ultimately sets up.

Later this afternoon and into the evening a cold front will swing through the northeast and that will then be the focus for strong storms to develop. Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Capital Region in an enhanced risk (3/5) threat level for severe storms.

The biggest threats we will be watching for will be strong damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, frequent lightning and even the chance for large hail. We cannot rule out the chance for a tornado either, Storm Prediction Center has a 5% chance for tornadoes, it does not sound that high but for the Northeast that is pretty significant.

The first half of the day will not be bad at all, in fact, we will potentially see some sunshine, especially through the Mohawk Valley south and east. This will add to the instability in the atmosphere ahead of any storms that develop. There is a chance for a shower or storm between noon and 2pm, these do not look to become severe, however, any storm that pops during the early afternoon can become locally strong.

Again, sunshine will break out this afternoon, then we will keep an eye to the sky, especially between 3 and 8pm.

Initially we will see rogue cells develop ahead of the main line of storms that looks to develop ahead of an approaching cold front.

Thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue through the early evening hours.

When the line of storms moves through early evening we will have to watch for bowing segments to develop, this would be indicative of very strong straight line winds and could lead to damage. High pressure moves in for Saturday with a drying trend and a return to quiet and sunny weather. Temperatures to start the weekend will be in the mid 70’s. Have a great day and stay safe! -Rob

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