Latest Forecast Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:
Still rather chilly this afternoon for late April standards, temperatures were stuck in the 50s, when the rain arrived they actually dropped back into the mid 50s late this afternoon. Not too chilly for the overnight, but rain will be around and will be heavy at times, with perhaps a rogue rumble or two of thunder. Steady rain will likely clear out ahead of Monday mornings commute.
An area of low pressure moving up the Atlantic Coast is headed straight for the Capital Region overnight tonight. This will bring a band of heavy rain late tonight which will put down perhaps 1-2″ of additional rain with some areas, mainly in the Catskills and Adirondacks perhaps picking up close to 3″ or more. This will lead to localized flooding concerns for areas mainly in the Catskills.
Unfortunately the wet weather is not done with us when we flip the calendar to May. Another slow moving upper level low pressure system will be slowly moving from the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This will bring more clouds, chances for rain through midweek and much cooler temperatures with highs Tuesday through Friday likely holding in the 50s.
There is good news, all the guidance is suggesting that we will slowly begin to see a drying trend towards the end of the week and into next weekend, we should also see warming temperatures, especially into next weekend. But before we get there we have the rain to get through tonight, which as mentioned could be on the heavy side.
Most of this rain will be to our north by daybreak on Monday, however, we can’t rule out a stray shower or some drizzle, otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40s.
With the cooler air aloft, and moderate warming at the ground level we do expect instability showers to erupt into the afternoon and early evening. Some of these could contain some thunder and perhaps some small hail, but would likely remain below severe criteria. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side for early May with highs in the 50s to near 60. It will also become a bit breezy as winds shift to the southwest with gusts up to 30 mph.
Another area of low pressure is set to move overhead on Tuesday. This will bring another period of rain and showers through Tuesday afternoon, because of the rain we expect temperatures to hold in the low to mid 50s.
Wash, rinse, and repeat for Wednesday with even cooler temperatures and the potential for a period of steady rain into the afternoon. We finally start to dry out on Thursday, still expecting mostly cloudy skies with some sunshine and the chance of a shower, but most should remain dry. Same thing goes for Friday, but a slightly lower chance at that shower into the afternoon. Drier air really begins to take hold for the weekend with a return to at least partly sunny skies for both Saturday and Sunday and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 60s Saturday and likely into the low 70s by Sunday! Have a great week and stay dry! -Rob