Latest Forecast Update from Meteorologist Rob Lindenmuth:
ALBANY, N.Y. (NEWS10) – Bitter cold temperatures today, another very cold night tonight as just about everyone falls below zero as high pressure moves overhead, but we will not have to worry about wind chill factors tonight as the winds will go calm as the night progresses.
Still watching our storm system for Sunday night into Monday, there are conflicting signals with the guidance, so this is still a VERY tricky forecast. Right now, the system is located in the deep south, taping into Gulf Moisture, tonight into tomorrow it will begin to hook towards the north. High clouds ahead of the system will begin to work in Sunday afternoon.
Now, it is looking likely that snow will move in from 10 p.m. midnight Sunday night. For several hours we all should see just snow, however, as some of the shorter terms, higher resolution guidance suggests there will be a layer of warm air moving in from the southeast, this will also be accompanied by some dry air as well, which will then allow the snow to transition over to some sleet and perhaps some freezing rain.
By Monday morning, expect snow mainly north of I-90, with the transition to a mix of freezing rain south and east from Albany into the south-central Berkshires. I think the forecast below is too far north with the mix line and that is why, for now anyway we will say the best chance for the mix will be south and east.
You can see the dry air in the image above the west of Albany on the west side of the Catskills, which will begin to work into the Capital Region by mid-morning/ early afternoon Monday. This may actually put an end to any precipitation for a period of time on Monday.
However, as the storm pulls away and colder air works back in I do believe we will see any leftover moisture change back over to snow, may even be an upslope event into Western New England. Still looks like a general 1-4″ Hudson Valley and points just east into Rensselaer, Columbia, and Washington counties.
Some upslope into the Spine of the Green Mountains and the Berkshires could provide 6-10″, the same thing for the Helderbergs, and back into the Catskills. Where there will be a little more moisture, and cold air to work with, the western Adirondacks look likely to pick up 10-14″ with the Southern Adirondacks and northwestern Saratoga county close to 6-10″.
I know we are a little over 24 hours out from the start of this event, but the guidance continues to send mixed messages on exactly what to expect, so this could still be tweaked a bit Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon, so please check back for updates.
Behind the storm, another shot of cold air for Tuesday with highs in the low 20s. A quick-hitting clipper system for Wednesday may bring an area-wide light snow and snow shower opportunity with colder temperatures to end the week and into next weekend with highs likely in the teens and low 20s. Have a great night and stay warm! -Rob